Políticas e Dilema de Alinhamento:As causas do hedging na competição entre os Estados Unidos e a China na infraestrutura digital da América Latina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69895/yj5yv823Palavras-chave:
Rivalidade entre Potências, Balanço de Ameaças, Weaponized Interdependence, 5G, Centros de Dados, Economia Política InternacionalResumo
O que leva os Estados a revelar suas estratégias de alinhamento durante a competição entre potências? Com base na teoria do Balanço de Ameaças e na literatura sobre hedging, argumentamos que o principal desencadeador não é a ascensão de uma potência nem a rivalidade entre potências, mas sim as Políticas Negativas de Alinhamento (NAS): o uso de pressão econômica ou de segurança por parte de uma potência para limitar a relação de um terceiro Estado com a potência rival. Sustentamos que o NAS cria um Dilema de Alinhamento e leva os Estados a manifestar suas posições. Para testar isso, comparamos dois setores no Brasil, Chile e México com crescente presença chinesa: antenas 5G/4G e centros de dados. Onde o NAS esteve presente, os países se alinharam explicitamente. Onde não esteve presente, o hedging — se existiu — permaneceu passivo ou oculto. Nosso artigo busca contribuir para os debates sobre as causas do hedging ao especificar um mecanismo que induz os Estados a adotar estratégias ativas de alinhamento. Mas isso levanta um problema adicional que denominamos Alinhamento de Schrödinger: uma condição em que não está claro se um Estado está seguindo uma estratégia de alinhamento oculta ou nenhuma estratégia de alinhamento.
Referências
Acharya, A. (2014). The End of American World Order. Polity Press.
Baldwin, D. A. (2020). Economic Statecraft: New Edition. Princeton University Press.
Bennett, A., & Checkel, J. T. (Eds.). (2014). Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139858472
Berg, R. C., & Ziemer, H. (2023, October 5). Managing geopolitical risk in Mexico’s ICT sector. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/managinggeopolitical-risk-mexicos-ict-sector
Blancato, F. G. (2024). The Cloud Sovereignty Nexus: How the European Union Seeks to Reverse Strategic Dependencies in Its Digital Ecosystem. Politics and Governance, 16(1), 12–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/poi3.358
BNamericas. (2025, November). Huawei mulling fourth Brazil datacenter zone, expansion in Mexico. BNamericas. https://www.bnamericas.com/en/features/huawei-mulling-fourth-brazil-datacenter-zone-expansion-in-mexico
Brun, É., & Covarrubias, A. (2024). The Meanings of Autonomy: Brazilian and Mexican Reactions to Tensions Between China and the United States. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 67(2), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329202400225
Calcara, A. (2023). From Quiet to Noisy Politics: Varieties of European Reactions to 5G and Huawei. Governance, 36(2), 439–457. https://doi.org/10.1111/gove.12674
Carrelli, T. (2024, May 16). 5G auctions in Latin America do not veto Huawei as requested by Washington. Universidad de Navarra. https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/lassubastas-de-5g-en-latinaomerica-no-vetan-a-huawei-como-pedia-washington
Cha, V. D. (2023). Collective Resilience: Deterring China’s Weaponization of Economic Interdependence. International Security, 48(1), 91–124. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00465
China Daily. (2025, February 20). Alibaba Cloud Launches First Data Center in Mexico. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202502/20/WS67b69908a310c240449d64e0.html
Christie, Ø. S., Jakobsen, J., & Jakobsen, T. G. (2024). The US way or Huawei? An analysis of the positioning of secondary states in the US-China rivalry. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 29(1), 77–108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09858-y
Ciorciari, J. D., & Haacke, J. (2019). Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 19(3), 367–374. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcz017
Colombo, S., López, M. P., & Vera, N. (2021). Tecnologías Emergentes, Poderes en Competencia y Regiones en Disputa: América Latina y el 5G en la Contienda Tecnológica Entre China y Estados Unidos. Estudos Internacionais, 9(1), 94–111. https://doi.org/10.5752/P.2317-773X.2021v9.n1.p94
David, S. R. (1991). Explaining Third World Alignment. World Politics, 43(2), 233–256. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010472
Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351
Fortin, C., Heine, J., & Ominami, C. (Eds.). (2023). Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option. Anthem Press.
Gerring, J. (2004). What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good For? American Political Science Review, 98(2), 341–354. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055404001182
Goh, E. (2007). Southeast Asian Perspectives on the China Challenge. Journal of Strategic Studies, 30(4–5), 809–832. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390701431915
Greitens, S. C., & Kardon, I. B. (2025). Security Without Exclusivity: Hybrid Alignment Under U.S.–China Competition. International Security, 49(3), 122–163. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00504
Haacke, J., & Ciorciari, J. D. (2022). Hedging as Risk Management: Insights from Works on Alignment, Riskification, and Strategy (IPC Working Paper Series No. 124). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4054791
Hannig Núñez, S. (2025). 5G networks in Latin America: Caught in a global geopolitical conflict between China and the world? In Technology transfer to Latin American countries (1st ed., Chapter 11). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003489450-11
Heine, J., Fortin, C., & Ominami, C. (2025). The Non-Aligned World: Striking Out in an Era of Great Power Competition. Polity Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The End of Liberal International Order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7–23. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix241
Ikenberry, G. J. (2024). Liberal Statecraft and the Problems of World Order. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 40(2), 234–245. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grae020
Jia, L., Bojikian, N. M. P., Tedeschi, A., Ioris, R., & França, I. (2024). Strategic Maneuvering in Brazil’s 5G Deployment Amidst United States–China Technological Rivalry. Revista Tempo do Mundo, (34), 1–30. https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/server/api/core/bitstreams/31dd4217-6b1f-47e6-8e8f-44f0ef8656a2/content
Kuik, C.-C. (2008). The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(2), 159–185. https://doi.org/10.1355/cs30-2a
Kuik, C.-C. (2021). Getting Hedging Right: A Small-State Perspective. China International Strategy Review, 3, 300–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5
Kuik, C.-C. (2023). Shades of Grey: Riskification and Hedging in the Indo-Pacific. The Pacific Review, 36(6), 1181–1214. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2022.2110608
Kuik, C.-C. (2024). Southeast Asian Responses to U.S.–China Tech Competition: Hedging and Economy–Security Tradeoffs. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 29, 509–538. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-024-09882-6
Lee, Y. J. (2022). Who Supports the Huawei 5G Ban? Advancing a Two-Level Ideational Approach in International Relations. Journal of Global Security Studies, 8(1), ogac028. https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogac028
Lehdonvirta, V., Wu, B., & Hawkins, Z. (2025). Weaponized Interdependence in a Bipolar World: How Economic Forces and Security Interests Shape the Global Reach of US and Chinese Cloud Data Centres. Review of International Political Economy, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2025.2489077
Lim, D. J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130
Lim, D. J., & Mukherjee, R. (2019). Hedging in South Asia: Balancing Economic and Security Interests Amid Sino-Indian Competition. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 19, 493–522. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcz006
Makichuk, D. (2021, March 25). Chile opens the door to Huawei 5G bidding. Asia Times. https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/chile-snubs-us-opens-door-to-huawei-5g-bidding/
Malkin, A., & He, T. (2024). The Geoeconomics of Global Semiconductor Value Chains: Extraterritoriality and the US–China Technology Rivalry. Review of International Political Economy, 31(2), 674–699. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2023.2245404
Marston, H. S. (2024). Navigating Great Power Competition: A Neoclassical Realist View of Hedging. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 24, 29–63. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcad001
Mastanduno, M. (1998). Economics and Security in Statecraft and Scholarship. International Organization, 52(4), 825–854. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081898550761
Narlikar, A. (2021). Must the Weak Suffer What They Must? The Global South in a World of Weaponized Interdependence. In D. W. Drezner, H. Farrell, & A. L. Newman (Eds.), The Uses and Abuses of Weaponized Interdependence (pp. 289–304). Brookings Institution Press.
Papageorgiou, M., Can, M., & Vieira, A. (2024). China as a Threat and Balancing Behavior in the Realm of Emerging Technologies. Chinese Political Science Review, 9(3), 441–482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-024-00248-0
Reuters. (2025, July 9). Huawei eyes greater role in Brazil data center market. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/huawei-eyes-data-center-investments-brazil-says-executive-2025-07-09/
Rodrik, D., & Walt, S. (2024). How to Construct a New Global Order. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 40(2), 256–268. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grae011
Schweller, R. L. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security, 19(1), 72–107. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2539149
Schweller, R. L. (2004). Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing. International Security, 29(2), 159–201. https://doi.org/10.1162/0162288042879913
Segal, A. (2021). Huawei, 5G, and Weaponized Interdependence. In D. W. Drezner, H. Farrell, & A. L. Newman (Eds.), The Uses and Abuses of Weaponized Interdependence (pp. 67–83). Brookings Institution Press.
Skidmore, Z. (2025, June 2). Casa dos Ventos granted approval to construct TikTok-backed 300 MW data center in Brazil. DatacenterDynamics. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/casa-dos-ventos-granted-approval-to-construct-tiktok-backed-300mw-data-center-in-brazil-report/
Snyder, G. H. (1984). The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics. World Politics, 36(4), 461–495.https://doi.org/10.2307/2010183
Tan, S. S. (2020). Consigned to Hedge: South-East Asia and America’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ Strategy. International Affairs, 96(1), 131–148. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz227
UNDP. (2025, April 15). Data in the Clouds, Centers on the Ground: The Role of Data Centers in
LAC’s Digital Future. United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/latin-america/blog/data-clouds-centers-ground-role-data-centers-lacs-digital-future
Van der Westhuizen, J. (2024). Huawei or the US Way? Why Brazil and South Africa Did Not Securitize 5G. Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, 67(2), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329202400216
Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Walt, S. M. (1990). The Origins of Alliances. Cornell University Press.
Walt, S. M. (2025). Hedging on Hegemony: The Realist Debate Over How to Respond to China. International Security, 49(4), 37–70. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00508
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Wilkins, T. (2023). Middle Power Hedging in the Era of Security/Economic Disconnect: Australia, Japan, and the ‘Special Strategic Partnership’. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 23, 93–127. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcab023
Wu, C. C.-H. (2019). Why Do States Hedge in East Asia? An Empirical Study on Hedging. Asian Perspective, 43(3), 557–584. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2019.0017
Zelicovich, J., & Yamin, P. (2024). Carrots or Sticks? Analyzing the Application of US Economic Statecraft Towards Latin American Engagement With China. Latin American Politics and Society, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2024.9
Zhao, X. (2025). Technological Hedging and Differentiated Responses of Southeast Asian Countries to U.S.–China Technological Competition: A Case Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI). The Pacific Review, 38(3), 502–533. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2024.2408010
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2025 Joaquín Maquieira Alonzo, Cuihong Cai, Brice Tseen Fu Lee (Author)
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Esta licença não permite o uso comercial da obra original ou de quaisquer obras derivadas. A distribuição de tais obras derivadas deve estar sob uma licença igual à que rege a obra original.